- SIPTA News - lists.sipta.org

Falsifiability
by Marco Zaffalon 21 Nov '23

21 Nov '23

Dear SIPTAnts, I’m not sure this is “news”, but I’d still like to raise a point. It’s for those of you who care to connect probability to the real world. The point is that science needs falsifiability. And purely probabilistic models aren’t really falsifiable, they’re at most improbable. This appears to be a major reason why we have all these theories of probability, and the related communities, and there’s no way to prove anyone wrong. Which is good for our careers, and less so with regard to progress. Contrast this with structural causal modelling. When we put forward a causal graph (a theory), any of its arcs is either right or wrong. This we can often test experimentally, or by other means. We correct the model, re-test and iterate, eventually consolidating our model of the world. Probability still plays a role there, although one of secondary importance. So it seems to me that the scientific method is based on causality rather than probability. I guess I’m not saying anything new. I just wanted to make the point; to me it seemed something worth reflecting on. Bests Marco

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Fwd: GAMM Annual meeting 2024 - section on uncertainty quantification, call for abstracts
by Enrique Miranda 15 Nov '23

15 Nov '23

Dear Siptians, They send me information about a section on uncertainty quantification at the GAMM annual meeting organised by Kerstin Lux from TU Eindhoven and Lorenzo Tamellini from CNR in Pavia, telling me that they welcome the participation of researchers on imprecise probabilities. Information can be found below. Best wishes, Quique ==================== Dear colleagues, We are happy to announce that the submission of abstracts to the uncertainty quantification section of the upcoming GAMM annual meeting**has opened: https://jahrestagung.gamm.org/annual-meeting-2024/94th-annual-meeting/ <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://jahrestagung.gamm.org/annual-meeting-20…> * *When? *March 18-22, 2024. * *Where?* Magdeburg, Germany. * *Deadline for submission of abstracts?* December 1st, 2023. We are excited to announce our four keynote speakers: * *Omar Knio (KAUST, Saudi Arabia):* “Dynamical and neural network approaches to downscaling of noisy and partial observations” * *Linus Seelinger (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany):* “UM-Bridge: Bridging the Gap between Advanced UQ and Advanced Models from Prototype to HPC” * *Elisabeth Ullmann (TU Munich, Germany):* "Rare event estimation with PDE-based models" * *Carlo Marcati (University of Pavia, Italy):* "Neural network surrogates for elliptic PDEs" We are looking forward to seeing many of you in Magdeburg. It will be a great chance to connect to the GAMM Activity Group on uncertainty quantification and discuss the latest advances in the field. Best regards, Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk (TU Eindhoven, The Netherlands), Lorenzo Tamellini (CNR IMATI, Italy)

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European Workshop on Uncertainty in Machine Learning (WUML 2024)
by Yusuf Sale 04 Nov '23

04 Nov '23

Dear colleagues, on February 19-21, 2024, we are organizing the European “Workshop on Uncertainty in Machine Learning” (WUML 2024) in Munich, Germany. The last two editions of this workshop were held in Ghent in 2023 and Compiegne in 2021 with the last edition in Ghent attracting roughly 60 participants. With this email, we kindly invite you to attend WUML 2024. Like the previous workshop in Ghent, this is an informal event without a paper submission system. Every participant will have the choice to give a talk, present a poster, or just attend the workshop without a presentation. We have been able to collect some funding to cover the costs for coffee breaks and lunches, so we are happy to announce that attending the workshop will not involve any registration fee. Preliminary information about WUML 2024 can be found under the following link: https://sites.google.com/view/wuml2024/ We start on February 19th around noon and finish on February 21st with lunch. After lunch, the rooms will still be available for informal discussions and project meetings. If you like to attend, we ask you to confirm your presence before January 19th, 2024, using the following form: https://sites.google.com/view/wuml2024/registratio <https://sites.google.com/view/wuml2024/registration>n In case of any further questions at this stage, please contact us! Finally, do not hesitate to forward this invitation to any of your colleagues or PhD students who might be interested in attending. Kind regards, Eyke Hüllermeier Viktor Bengs Yusuf Sale Marcel Wever

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[jobs] Postdoc Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence at TU Eindhoven
by Cassio de Campos 30 Oct '23

30 Oct '23

The UAI group of TU Eindhoven seeks a postdoc researcher in AI/ML to work in the general area of uncertainty in AI, and in particular related to probabilistic machine learning and graphical models. The postdoc will also be largely involved in the project NWO Perspectief Personalized Oncology involving decision support systems for better care. We offer a 3-year contract with salary in scale 10 of the Dutch CAO (min. 3877 max. 5090 euro per month, plus year-end bonus of 8.3% and annual vacation pay of 8%). More details about the post can be found via: https://jobs.tue.nl/nl/vacature/postdoc-uncertainty-in-artificial-intellige… More details about the group can be found via: https://uai.win.tue.nl and https://dai.win.tue.nl We will screen applications and run interviews while the post is open, and we will close the position when a suitable candidate is found, so do not wait to apply. Please share this with colleagues if you think they might be interested, as well as our other call for postdocs: https://jobs.tue.nl/nl/vacature/machine-learning-postdoc-positions-1034634.… best regards, cassio. -- Cassio de Campos (c.decampos(a)tue.nl) "It's not (only) about the result, it's about how we reached it." (This email, its contents and attachments are confidential and only for private use of its intended addressees, unless explicitly agreed otherwise among all involved. Any other use shall be considered as a breach of agreement. If received in error, please do not disclose the contents to anyone, and immediately notify the sender by return e-mail and delete this e-mail and any attachments from your systems. No liability is accepted resulting from or relating to this communication.)

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Next SIPTA seminar: Ryan Martin on falsifying statistical models (18/10 at 3pm Paris Time)
by sdesterc 16 Oct '23

16 Oct '23

Dear colleagues, We are delighted to announce our upcoming SIPTA online seminar on imprecise probabilities (IP). These monthly events are open to anyone interested in IP, and will be followed by a Q&A and open discussion. They also provide an occasion for the community to meet, keep in touch and exchange between in-person events. The next seminar will take place on the 18th October (Wednesday). The zoom link for this seminar is https://utc-fr.zoom.us/j/82973185259 For this new seminar, we are very happy to have Ryan Martin as our speaker. Ryan Martin is a professor at the Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University. Ryan Martin is in general interested in the foundations of statistics and probabilities. He is well known, among other things, for having proposed inferential models, a very generic framework allowing to make calibrated statistical statements through the use of non-additive measures. On the 18th of October, at 15:00 CEST:paris time (up to 17:00 CEST, with a talk duration of 45min/1h), he will talk about "Falsification, Fisher's underworld of probability, and balancing behavioral & statistical reliability”. Curious? Then check out the abstract on the webpage of the SIPTA seminars: sipta.org/events/sipta-seminars. The zoom link for attending the seminar can be found on that same page. So please mark your calendars, and join us for the occasion. And for those who missed the previous seminar and want to catch up, or simply want to see it again and again, it is online at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhKYP8BMQNM&t See you at the seminar! Sébastien, Enrique and Jasper

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Next SIPTA seminars (3pm Paris time): 18th October (statistical validity), 28th November (Causality), 12th December (Robust optimisation)
by sdesterc 09 Oct '23

09 Oct '23

Dear colleagues, We are delighted to announce our upcoming SIPTA online seminars on imprecise probabilities (IP) for the next 3 months, so that you can book the associated time slots. These monthly events are open to anyone interested in IP, and will be followed by a Q&A and open discussion. They also provide an occasion for the community to meet, keep in touch and exchange between in-person events. All seminars will be at 3pm Paris time. The seminars are the following: * On the 18th October, Ryan Martin (Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University) will talk about "Falsification, Fisher's underworld of probability, and balancing behavioral & statistical reliability” * On the 28th November, Alessandro Antonucci (Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull'Intelligenza Artificiale, IDSIA) will talk about “Structural Causal Models are (Solvable by) Credal Networks” * On the 12th December, Daniel Kuhn (College of Management of Technology at EPFL) will talk about “On the Interplay of Optimal Transport and Distributionally Robust Optimization” For moire details, you can check out the abstract and zoom link details on the webpage of the SIPTA seminars: sipta.org/events/sipta-seminars. Best regards Enrique, Jasper and Sébastien

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Next SIPTA seminar: 27 September 3Pm (Paris time), Dominique Guyonnet on Risk Analysis
by sdesterc 25 Sep '23

25 Sep '23

Dear colleagues, We are delighted to announce our upcoming SIPTA online seminar on imprecise probabilities (IP). These monthly events are open to anyone interested in IP, and will be followed by a Q&A and open discussion. They also provide an occasion for the community to meet, keep in touch and exchange between in-person events. The next seminar will take place on the 27th of September (Wednesday). The zoom link for this seminar is https://utc-fr.zoom.us/j/82399096997 For this new seminar, we are very happy to have Dominique Guyonnet as our speaker. Dominique Guyonnet is a reasearcher and expert at BRGM, France’s leading public institution for Earth Science applications for the management of surface and sub-surface resources with a view to sustainable development. He has worked on numerous risk analysis cases involving multiple stakeholders, for which he used imprecise probability techniques. On the 27th of September, at 15:00 CEST:paris time (up to 17:00 CEST, with a talk duration of 45min/1h), he will talk about "Application of uncertainty theory in the field of environmental risks”. Curious? Then check out the abstract on the webpage of the SIPTA seminars: sipta.org/events/sipta-seminars. The zoom link for attending the seminar can be found on that same page. So please mark your calendars on the 27th of September, and join us for the occasion. And for those who missed the previous seminar and want to catch up, or simply want to see it again and again, it is online at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwGMvRUmUmo&list=PLXsgvF2_g5Ht-BYPWsSjcunA3… See you at the seminar! Sébastien, Enrique and Jasper

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Next SIPTA seminar: 27 September 3Pm (Paris time), Dominique Guyonnet on Risk Analysis
by sdesterc 20 Sep '23

20 Sep '23

Dear colleagues, We are delighted to announce our upcoming SIPTA online seminar on imprecise probabilities (IP). These monthly events are open to anyone interested in IP, and will be followed by a Q&A and open discussion. They also provide an occasion for the community to meet, keep in touch and exchange between in-person events. The next seminar will take place on the 27th of September (Wednesday). The zoom link for this seminar is https://utc-fr.zoom.us/j/82399096997 For this new seminar, we are very happy to have Dominique Guyonnet as our speaker. Dominique Guyonnet is a reasearcher and expert at BRGM, France’s leading public institution for Earth Science applications for the management of surface and sub-surface resources with a view to sustainable development. He has worked on numerous risk analysis cases involving multiple stakeholders, for which he used imprecise probability techniques. On the 27th of September, at 15:00 CEST:paris time (up to 17:00 CEST, with a talk duration of 45min/1h), he will talk about "Application of uncertainty theory in the field of environmental risks”. Curious? Then check out the abstract on the webpage of the SIPTA seminars: sipta.org/events/sipta-seminars. The zoom link for attending the seminar can be found on that same page. So please mark your calendars on the 27th of September, and join us for the occasion. And for those who missed the previous seminar and want to catch up, or simply want to see it again and again, it is online at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwGMvRUmUmo&list=PLXsgvF2_g5Ht-BYPWsSjcunA3… See you at the seminar! Sébastien, Enrique and Jasper

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PhD position in imprecise probabilities
by Faes, Matthias 13 Sep '23

13 Sep '23

Dear colleagues, Would it be possible to distribute the open PhD position on the propagation of imprecise probabilities through expensive numerical models, that is currently open for hiring at the Chair for Reliability Engineering at TU Dortmund University (see description in attachment). Best wishes Matthias Wichtiger Hinweis: Die Information in dieser E-Mail ist vertraulich. Sie ist ausschließlich für den Adressaten bestimmt. Sollten Sie nicht der für diese E-Mail bestimmte Adressat sein, unterrichten Sie bitte den Absender und vernichten Sie diese Mail. Vielen Dank. Unbeschadet der Korrespondenz per E-Mail, sind unsere Erklärungen ausschließlich final rechtsverbindlich, wenn sie in herkömmlicher Schriftform (mit eigenhändiger Unterschrift) oder durch Übermittlung eines solchen Schriftstücks per Telefax erfolgen. Important note: The information included in this e-mail is confidential. It is solely intended for the recipient. If you are not the intended recipient of this e-mail please contact the sender and delete this message. Thank you. Without prejudice of e-mail correspondence, our statements are only legally binding when they are made in the conventional written form (with personal signature) or when such documents are sent by fax.

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FW: IPMU 2024 announcement
by Kreinovich, Vladik 02 Sep '23

02 Sep '23

FYI, both uncertainty and probabilistic methods are highlighted topics. Paper related to imprecise probabilities are always welcome at this series of conferences. From: Christophe Marsala Sent: Friday, September 1, 2023 3:18 AM Dear All, Attached you can find the CFP for the next IPMU 2024 that will be held in Lisbon (Portugal) next year. Best regards, Christophe Marsala ----------------------------------------------- 20th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems IPMU 2024, Lisbon, Portugal, July 22–26, 2024 https://ipmu2024.inesc-id.pt/ The IPMU conference is organized every two years with the focus of bringing together scientists working on methods for the management of uncertainty and aggregation. It also provides a forum for the exchange of ideas between theoreticians and practitioners in these and related areas. The 2024 edition of IPMU will take place at Instituto Superior Tecnico, University of Lisbon, Portugal, located in a vibrant renovated area 10 minutes from downtown. Lisbon is one of the oldest cities in the world, and full of stories to tell. A city where you feel safe wandering around day or night, where you'll find hotels, restaurants and nightlife to suit every taste, budget and requirement. A city full of authenticity, where old customs and ancient history intermix with cultural entertainment and hi-tech innovation. Lisbon is ageless, but it loves company, being famous for its hospitality and the family-like way it welcomes visitors. Lisbon has been elected World's Leading City Destination at the 2018 World Travel Awards. Topics and Scope of the Conference Theory, Methods and Tools: Uncertainty, Computational Intelligence, Bayesian and Probabilistic Methods, Information Theory, Measures of Information and Uncertainty, Evidence and Possibility Theory, Utility Theory, Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic, Fuzzy Control, Rough Sets, Multiple Criteria Decision Methods, Aggregation Methods, Knowledge Representation, Approximate Reasoning, Non-classical Logics, Default Reasoning, Belief Revision, Argumentation, Ontologies, Uncertainty in Cognition, Graphical Models, Knowledge Acquisition, Interpretable Machine Learning, Evolutionary Computation, Neural Networks, Data Analysis/Data Science, Explainable AI. Application Fields: Intelligent Systems and Information Processing, Decision Support, Database and Information Systems, Information Retrieval and Fusion, Speech and Natural Language Processing, Image Processing, Multi-Media, Agents, Pattern Recognition, Medicine and Bioinformatics, Finance, Software Engineering, Industrial Engineering, Big Data. IPMU'2024 solicits original research contributions of theoretical and methodological nature as well as application-oriented work. IMPORTANT DATES - Special session proposals: November 24th, 2023 - Notification of acceptance special sessions: December 1st, 2023 - Paper submission: February 23rd, 2024 - Notification of acceptance: March 29th, 2024 - Camera-ready paper submission: April 30th, 2024 - Early/author registration: April 26th, 2024 - Conference: July 22nd-26th, 2024 General Chair João Paulo Carvalho (Portugal) Program Chairs Marek Reformat (Canada) Marie-Jeanne Lesot (France) Susana Vieira (Portugal) Publication Chair Fernando Batista (Portugal) Publicity Chair Christophe Marsala (France) Executive Directors Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier (France) Ronald R. Yager (USA) ----------------------------------------------

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