- SIPTA News - lists.sipta.org

Independence puzzle
by Marco Zaffalon Dec. 5, 2025

Dec. 5, 2025

Dear SIPTAnts, Here is a small puzzle for you - I give it to my master students - that makes a nice point (it’s not mine, I only created a story around it). Enjoy, Marco *** A casino hosts a slot machine with only two spinning reels, A and B, each one displaying either 0 or 1. You observe the machine for a long time, thus verifying that those reels are independent and uniformly distributed, as they should: P(A)=P(B)=P(B|A)=1/2. One plays inserting two dollars in the machine, and wins 4 dollars if A=B and nothing otherwise. The game is fair in the sense that on average one wins 2 dollars. At some point you discover that you can manipulate reel A while it's spinning, thus setting it at the value you like. Are there conditions that enable you to win more than 2 dollars on average by doing so? (Think before reading on.) *** Imagine that the machine internally works as follows. It generates two independent uniformly random bits U and V. By a defect of construction, A and B are then set according to the following rules: - A=1 iff U=V. - B=1 iff U=1 or (A=1,U=0,V=1). Luckily, this does not affect the fact that the machine is indeed fair: P(A)=P(B)=P(B|A)=1/2. However, when you manipulate A, its value will no longer depend on U and V; it will just depend on what you decide, say A=1. This will make the clause (A=1,U=0,V=1) true whenever U=0,V=1. Whence B=1 will occur with probability 3/4: 1/2 due to U=1 plus 1/4 due to U=0,V=1. As a consequence, on average you will win 4*3/4 = 3 dollars, making an average profit of 1 dollar per game. *** The moral of the story: causation does not imply correlation - or, prediction does not inform action.

1 0

11th International Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing REC 2026, Dortmund, Germany, September 2-5, 2026, deadline extended!
by Kreinovich, Vladik Dec. 4, 2025

Dec. 4, 2025

Papers using imprecise probability techniques are always welcome at this series of workshops. **************************** Dear Colleague, We are pleased to invite you to the 11th International Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing (REC2026), taking place 2-5 September 2026 at TU Dortmund University, Germany, https://rec2026.web.tu-dortmund.de/ Under the theme "Reliability Computations in a Data and Model-Driven World," REC2026 connects classical uncertainty quantification with modern advances in AI and data science. As usually, a specific focus is on the development and application of imprecise probabilistic methods in engineering computations. REC2026 will offer an interdisciplinary forum on uncertainty quantification, risk assessment, and the reliability of engineering computations. The program includes keynote lectures, technical sessions, networking opportunities, a welcome reception (2 Sept), and a conference dinner (4 Sept). Important Dates * December 15, 2025 - Abstract Submission (deadline extended) * April 1, 2026 - Full Paper Submission Submission templates are available on the conference website Mark your calendar and stay tuned! With best regards, Matthias Faes (TU Dortmund University) matthias.faes(a)tu-dortmund.de<mailto:matthias.faes@tu-dortmund.de> Michael Beer (Leibniz University of Hannover) beer(a)irz.uni-hannover.de<mailto:beer@irz.uni-hannover.de> REC2026 General Chairs Marcos Valdebenito marcos.valdebenito(a)tu-dortmund.de<mailto:marcos.valdebenito@tu-dortmund.de> Local Organizing Committee Chair, REC 2026

1 0

FW: NAFIPS deadline has been extended
by Kreinovich, Vladik Dec. 2, 2025

Dec. 2, 2025

Dear Friends, Papers combining fuzzy and probabilities are always welcome at this series of conferences. ********************************************** Deadlines for submissions to the Joint NAFIPS International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, Soft Computing and Explainable AI and 10th World Conference on Soft Computing NAFIPS 2026 (El Paso, Texas, USA, March 14-16, 2026, https://sites.google.com/view/nafips26/) have been extended: ** the new deadline for submitting full papers is December 15, 2025; this is the final deadline, there will be not extension ** the new deadline for submitting late-breaking papers and extended abstracts is January 15, 2026

1 0

Re: ESCIM2026 – Submission Deadline Reminder
by Kreinovich, Vladik Dec. 2, 2025

Dec. 2, 2025

FYI, AI-related papers using imprecise probabilities are always welcome at this series of conferences From: Tüű Szabó, Boldizsár <tuu.szabo.boldizsar(a)ga.sze.hu<mailto:tuu.szabo.boldizsar@ga.sze.hu>> Sent: Monday, December 1, 2025 12:23 AM Subject: ESCIM2026 – Submission Deadline Reminder Dear Colleagues, This is a kind reminder that the paper submission deadline for the 17th European Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Mathematics ESCIM 2026 (Timisoara, Romania, May 10-13, 2026) is approaching. Submission deadline: December 19, 2025 All submission details, including topics, formatting instructions, and important dates, are available on the the website: https://escim2026.uca.es/submission/ We warmly invite you to submit your contributions and look forward to receiving your papers. Best regards, Boldizsár Tüű-Szabó Program Chair, ESCIM2026 [Image removed by sender. Logo]<https://uni.sze.hu/kezdolap> Dr. Tüű-Szabó Boldizsár egyetemi adjunktus Informatikai és Villamosmérnöki Kar [Image removed by sender.] 9026 Győr, Egyetem tér 1 [Image removed by sender.] +36 96 503 400 tuu.szabo.boldizsar(a)sze.hu<mailto:tuu.szabo.boldizsar@sze.hu> [Image removed by sender. adress-icon] uni.sze.hu<https://uni.sze.hu>

1 0

IP seminar in Trento, tomorrow 9.30 (Trento time)
by sdesterc Dec. 1, 2025

Dec. 1, 2025

Dear friends, I’ve been aware (thanks to Matteo Brunelli) that an interesting talk will take place in Trento, tomorrow at 9.30 • https://eventi.unitn.it/it/stackelberg-cournot-nash-equilibria-under-ambigu… Do not hesitate to spread this information! Cheers -- ==================================== Sebastien Destercke, Ph. D. CNRS researcher in computer science. Université de Technologie de Compiegne U.M.R. C.N.R.S. 7253 Heudiasyc Avenue de Landshut F-60205 Compiegne Cedex FRANCE Tel: +33 (0)3 44 23 79 85 Fax: +33 (0)3 44 23 44 77 ====================================

1 0

Reminder: Kevin Blackwell talk at 3pm
by sdesterc Nov. 26, 2025

Nov. 26, 2025

Dear Siptians, This is just a reminder that Kevin Blackwell talk will take place at 3pm. Information (including zoom link) there: https://sipta.org/events/sipta-seminars/ See you in an hour! Sébastien

1 0

Re: SMPS 2026 in Lecce, Italy, September 15-18, 2026
by Kreinovich, Vladik Nov. 24, 2025

Nov. 24, 2025

Dear Colleagues, the SMPS 2026 conference (Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics) will take place on September 15-18, 2026, in Lecce, Italy. As is customary for the SMPS series, we expect between 80 and 120 participants, creating an environment conducive to stimulating scientific dialogue and a warm, friendly atmosphere. Our objective is to keep the fees including lunches, conference dinner, social events and Springer book of proceedings as low as possible. In the conference website, you may find the expected fees (the precise amounts will be determined in the spring, once the exact number of participants is known). Confirmed plenary speakers are: • Bernard De Baets (Ghent University, BE) • Irene Gijbels (KU Leuven, BE) • Beatriz Sinova Fernández (Oviedo University, ES) The SMPS conference series has the tradition to collect short papers of 6-8 pages of all participants giving a talk. These papers will undergo a quick peer-review and should either contain novel results or provide a survey over recently established material. All accepted contributions will be published in a forthcoming Springer conference proceedings book. Submission of short papers will be possible starting January 1st, 2026. For more information about the event, please check in the following days the official conference website: http://smps2026.unisalento.it<http://smps2026.unisalento.it/> the Linkedin page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/smps-lecce-7419b0398 Looking forward to welcoming you in Lecce Fabrizio Durante (for the Local Organizing Committee) --------------------------------------------------------- Fabrizio Durante Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica “Ennio De Giorgi” Università del Salento via per Arnesano, I-73100 Lecce (Italy) Personal website: https://sites.google.com/site/fbdurante/ [Image removed by sender.]

1 0

Fwd: WUML 2026 – Workshop on Uncertainty in Machine Learning, Tartu, Estonia, Feb 2–4, 2026
by sdesterc Nov. 21, 2025

Nov. 21, 2025

Dear all, The next WUML conference on uncertainty in machine learning will take in Tartu during February. This is a nice workshop that promotes discussion around Machine learning. People attending usually have a very nice experience and in many occasion follow-up collaborations. Best regards Sébastien -- ==================================== Sebastien Destercke, Ph. D. CNRS researcher in computer science. Université de Technologie de Compiegne U.M.R. C.N.R.S. 7253 Heudiasyc Avenue de Landshut F-60205 Compiegne Cedex FRANCE Tel: +33 (0)3 44 23 79 85 Fax: +33 (0)3 44 23 44 77 ==================================== > Begin forwarded message: > > From: Meelis Kull <meelis.kull(a)ut.ee> > Subject: WUML 2026 – Workshop on Uncertainty in Machine Learning, Tartu, Estonia, Feb 2–4, 2026 > Date: 3 November 2025 at 11:15:32 CET > To: Meelis Kull <meelis.kull(a)ut.ee> > > Dear colleague, > > We are pleased to announce that the Workshop on Uncertainty in Machine Learning (WUML 2026) will be held on February 2–4, 2026, at the University of Tartu, Estonia. > > Following the successful previous editions in Munich (2024) and Milan (2025), WUML 2026 will continue to provide an open and informal forum for discussing recent advances and challenges in uncertainty in machine learning. > > The first WUML workshop was held in 2015, and the event has been held annually since 2023, with recent editions in Ghent, Munich, and Milan. The goal of this workshop is to bring together researchers interested in the topic of uncertainty in machine learning. It aims to provide a forum for discussing the latest developments in modeling and quantifying uncertainty in machine learning problems, as well as for exploring new research directions in this field. > > As in previous years, WUML 2026 will be an informal event without a paper submission system. Participants are welcome to give a talk, present a poster, or simply attend the workshop. Participation is free of charge, though attendees are expected to cover their own travel and accommodation expenses. > > Preliminary information about the workshop is available at: > https://sites.google.com/view/wuml2026 > > Those interested in attending are kindly asked to confirm their participation by January 7, 2026, using the following form: > https://forms.gle/Gom361htiTd48pfU9 > > Please note that, due to room capacity and expected interest, participation will be limited to a maximum of 150 attendees. > > For any questions, please feel free to contact the organizers. You are also welcome to share this announcement with colleagues or students who may be interested in attending. > > We look forward to seeing you in Tartu! > > On behalf of the WUML 2026 Organizing Committee > Meelis Kull > > > > --- > Meelis Kull > Head of the Estonian Centre of Excellence in AI > Professor of Artificial Intelligence > Institute of Computer Science > University of Tartu > meelis.kull(a)ut.ee <mailto:meelis.kull@ut.ee> >

1 0

Next SIPTA virtual seminar: 26th of November, K. Blackwell "Representing awareness change with sets of desirable gambles"
by sdesterc Nov. 18, 2025

Nov. 18, 2025

Dear colleagues, We are delighted to announce our upcoming SIPTA online seminar on imprecise probabilities (IP). These monthly events are open to anyone interested in IP, and will be followed by a Q&A and open discussion. They also provide an occasion for the community to meet, keep in touch and exchange between in-person events. The next seminar will take place on the 26th of November (Wednesday). The zoom link for this seminar is https://utc-fr.zoom.us/j/83908951605 For this new seminar, we are very happy to have Kevin Blackwell as our speaker. Kevin Blackwell is currently a lecturer at Bristol Philosophy department, and has many contribution in the foundation of imprecise probabilities, with a recent focus on its most general forms using the notions of desirable gambles and of coherent choice functions. On the the 26th of November, at 15:00 CEST:paris time (up to 17:00 CEST, with a talk duration of 45min/1h), he will talk about "Representing awareness change with sets of desirable gambles”. Curious? Then check out the abstract on the webpage of the SIPTA seminars: sipta.org/events/sipta-seminars. The zoom link for attending the seminar can be found on that same page. So please mark your calendars on the 26th of November, and join us for the occasion. And for those who missed the previous seminar and want to catch up, or simply want to see it again and again, it is online at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk1YvCstMRw See you at the seminar! Sébastien, Enrique and Jasper

1 0

FYI: interval session at NAFIPS 2026 conference, deadline for submissions December 1, 2026
by Kreinovich, Vladik Nov. 15, 2025

Nov. 15, 2025

Papers related to interval-valued and fuzzy-valued probabilities are always welcome at this series of fuzzy conferences *********** Special Session on Interval Uncertainty Organizers: Martine Ceberio (University of Texas at El Paso), Christoph Lauter (University of Texas at El Paso), Vladik Kreinovich (University of Texas at El Paso) Description: Interval uncertainty is closely related to fuzzy techniques: indeed, if we want to know how the fuzzy uncertainty of the inputs propagates through the data processing algorithm, then the usual Zadeh's extension principle is equivalent to processing alpha-cuts (intervals) for each level alpha. This relation between intervals and fuzzy computations is well known, but often, fuzzy researchers are unaware of the latest most efficient interval techniques and thus use outdated less efficient methods. One of the objectives of the proposed session is to help the fuzzy community by explaining the latest interval techniques and to help the interval community to better understand the related interval computation problems. Yet another relation between interval and fuzzy techniques is that the traditional fuzzy techniques implicitly assume that experts can describe their degree of certainty in different statements by an exact number. In reality, it is more reasonable to expect experts to provide only a rage (interval) of possible values -- leading to interval-valued fuzzy techniques that, in effect, combine both types of uncertainty. ************ The Joint NAFIPS International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, Soft Computing and Explainable AI and 10th World Conference on Soft Computing NAFIPS 2026 will be held in El Paso, Texas, USA, on March 14-16, 2026. https://sites.google.com/view/nafips26/ <venue> In 2025, we had a conference in Banff, Canada, on the Northern side of Rocky mountains. This year, this conference will be held in the southmost part of the same mountain range -- in El Paso, Texas. El Paso is among the ten safest cities in the US, It is a vibrant border city known for its unique blend of American and Mexican cultures, affordability, and historic charm. Located in far western Texas, the "Sun City" offers a high number of sunny days and is recognized for its beautiful desert landscapes and strong community spirit. El Paso is situated at the junction of Texas, New Mexico, and Mexico, creating a strong binational identity that influences its food, language (Spanglish is common), and festivals. The conference venue is the Art, Science, and Technology Building on the Valle Verde Campus of the El Paso Community College, see https://www.epcc.edu/Contact/about-the-campuses <Aims and Scope> As an international conference in the areas of fuzzy sets and soft computing, the NAFIPS 2026 conference will bring together scientists, engineers, students, and practitioners working in fuzzy logic and related areas to present their recent research accomplishments. The conference offers a unique platform for the exchange of ideas, fostering interaction and building multidisciplinary research linkages. <Topics> The topics cover all aspects of fuzzy systems and their applications including, but not limited to: * fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic * mathematical foundations of fuzzy sets and fuzzy systems * approximate reasoning, fuzzy inference models, and soft computing * fuzzy decision analysis, decision making, optimization, and design * fuzzy system architectures and hardware * fuzzy methods in data analysis, statistics and imprecise probability * fuzzy databases and information retrieval * fuzzy pattern recognition and image processing * fuzzy sets in management science * fuzzy control and robotics * possibility theory * fuzzy sets and logic in ontology, web, and social networks * fuzzy preference modeling * fuzzy sets in operations research and manufacturing * fuzzy database mining and financial forecasting * fuzzy neural networks * evolutionary and hybrid systems * intelligent agents and ambient intelligence * learning, adaptive, and evolvable fuzzy systems <Deadlines> Deadline for submitting tutorial and special session proposals: December 1, 2025 Deadline for paper submissions: December 1, 2025 Notification of acceptance: January 15, 2026 Deadline for final versions of accepted papers: February 15, 2026 Conference: March 14-16, 2026 <How to submit> Please submit your tutorial proposals to Marek Reformat, Tutorial Chair, by email to reformat(a)ualberta.ca<mailto:reformat@ualberta.ca>. Please submit your special session proposals to Fernando Gomide, Special Session Chair, at gomide(a)unicamp.br<mailto:gomide@unicamp.br>. Proposals for tutorials and special sessions should include the title, a short abstract, and the list of organizers (including a brief listing of their qualifications). Papers should be submitted via EasyChair, via a link https://easychair.org/my/conference?conf=nafips2026 If you are submitting to a special session, then when EasyChair asks you about the paper title, add - in capital letters - the session title before the title of your paper. For example, if you are submitting a paper titled "Our great revolutionary ideas for teaching and learning" to the special session on fuzzy education, then in the EasyChair slot for paper title write: "FUZZY EDUCATION Our great revolutionary ideas for teaching and learning". Also, in addition to submitting your papers to EasyChair, send a copy of your submission by email to the organizers of the special session. <Organizing committee> General Chair: Christian Servin (El Paso Community College) Program Chair: Scott Dick (University of Alberta, Canada) Special Sessions Chair: Fernando Gomide (University of Campinas, Brazil) Award Co-Chairs: Julia Rayz (Purdue University) Ildar Batyrshin (Instituto Politecnico Nacinal, Mexio) Tutorial Chair: Marek Reformat (University of Alberta, Canada) Industrial Liaison Chair: Kelly Cohen (University of Cincinnati) Competition Co-Chairs: Tim Arnett (Thales Flight Avionics, USA) Barnabas Bede (DigiPen University) Student and Young Researchers Chair: Wilhelm Louw (Pyramidion Co. and University of Cincinnati) Publicity Chair: Juan Carlos Figueroa-Garcia (Universita Distrital, Bogota, Colombia) Local Arrangements Co-Chairs: Christian Servin, Nadia Karichev, Ivan Alonso (El Paso Community College) Martine Ceberio, Vladik Kreinovich (University of Texas at El Paso)

1 0