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Re: [SIPTA] Question about the word "gamble" -- and "prevision"
by Serena Doria June 12, 2017

June 12, 2017

Dear Professor Bickis, In Italian the two words Previsione=Prevision and Predizione=Prediction have different acceptation. (Devoto-Oli Dictionary) Previsione = Elaborazione mentale relativa al futuro, sulla base di indizi piu' o meno sicuri (Mental thinking about the future based on more or less secure clues) Example: Previsioni atmosferiche =Weather forecasts Predizione = previsione autorevole e solenne riferita come oggetto di una previsione o profezia (Authoritative and solemn predictions referred as the subject of a prediction or prophecy) Best regards, Serena Professor Bickis <bickis(a)snoopy.usask.ca> ha scritto: > Thanks for all your collective erudition. I am aware that “gamble” > or its synonyms “wager” and “bet” have been used by many writers in > the context of probability and decisions theory. I was thinking of > the use of the word in the generic abstract sense that Walley uses. > Since Walley’s development picks up on de Finetti and Williams in > using “prevision”, I wondered if one of them had also used “gamble”, > but it seems that they did not. > > Googling some Italian web sites on probability, I did come across > the word “scommessa” in discussion of expectation/prevision, but I > wonder if de Finetti himself used it in the sense that Walley used > “gamble”. > > I am also a bit mystified by the history of the word “prevision”. > Writing in French his 1937 paper, de Finetti uses “prévision” rather > than the more common (even then) espérance. I would translate > “prévision” as “predicition” in English. I see that in the 1974 > English translation of de Finetti’s "Teoria de la Probabilità”, the > translators note that they are using “prevision” (where earlier > translators had used “foresight”), thereby making “prevision” less > esoteric in English. However, in the same book, de Finetti makes a > big deal that the “prevision is not prediction” (in the English > translation). I would be interested if any Italian speakers out > there could explain how de Finetti described this in his native > language. I would render the French “prévision” as “predicition” in > English, so naively would think that “previsione” in Italian also > translates as “prediction”. Google Translate, however, gives me > “predizione”, > for “predicition”. So when writing in Italian does de Finetti > contrast “previsione” from “predizione”? Here once can see the > difference between seeing and speaking, which is somewhat masked in > English. Is that what de Finetti was driving at? > > Interested in discussion. > > Mik Bickis > >> On Jun 6, 2017, at 08:18 AM, Samuel Cohen <cohens(a)maths.ox.ac.uk> wrote: >> >> Dear all, >> >> If you are looking more generally at the history, it's unsurprising >> the word 'gamble' wasn't used much before the mid-20th century. >> While it was a common word in english since the 18th century (but >> was a colloquialism), it seems to have moved up in popularity post >> 1900 (see for example google ngrams). >> >> De Moivre, in arguably the first textbook on probability in >> English, uses 'wager' throughout (which is natural, as his >> attention is on games of chance). >> >> Best, >> Sam Cohen >> >> >> >> so On 06/06/17 14:01, Teddy Seidenfeld wrote: >>> Dear Mik, Erik, and Friends, >>> >>> I'm no scholar of the term 'gamble', but it's been used by many >>> decision theorists in closely related senses. >>> >>> For instance, Savage's (1954) section 5.2 (titled 'Gambles') uses >>> it within his theory (of subjective expected utility) to refer to >>> the equivalence class of simple acts that carry the same >>> (personal) probability distribution over consequences. Savage is >>> generalizing the von Neumann-Morgenstern sense of 'gamble'. >>> >>> I grew up with the von Neumann-Morgenstern's theory of cardinal >>> utility for gambles -- though vN-M use an extraneous concept of >>> 'probability' in contrast with Savage's approach. >>> >>> Best, >>> Teddy >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Mon, Jun 5, 2017 at 7:12 PM, Professor Bickis >>> <bickis(a)snoopy.usask.ca> wrote: >>> Hello: >>> >>> Can someone answer this question? >>> >>> Was it Walley who initiated the word “gamble” to use in place of >>> the classical “random variable”? De Finetti uses “random >>> quantity”, as does Williams. “Gamble” is ubiquitous in the >>> current literature, but I have not seen it anywhere prior to >>> Walley’s 1991 book. >>> Walley does not seem to attribute the term to anyone else. >>> >>> Mik Bickis >>> _______________________________________________ >>> SIPTA mailing list >>> SIPTA(a)idsia.ch >>> http://mailman2.ti-edu.ch/mailman/listinfo/sipta >>> >>> >>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> SIPTA mailing list >>> >>> SIPTA(a)idsia.ch >>> http://mailman2.ti-edu.ch/mailman/listinfo/sipta >> >> _______________________________________________ >> SIPTA mailing list >> SIPTA(a)idsia.ch >> http://mailman2.ti-edu.ch/mailman/listinfo/sipta > > _______________________________________________ > SIPTA mailing list > SIPTA(a)idsia.ch > http://mailman2.ti-edu.ch/mailman/listinfo/sipta >

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Re: [SIPTA] Question about the word "gamble"
by Samuel Cohen June 7, 2017

June 7, 2017

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[SIPTA] Question about the word "gamble"
by Professor Bickis June 6, 2017

June 6, 2017

Hello: Can someone answer this question? Was it Walley who initiated the word “gamble” to use in place of the classical “random variable”? De Finetti uses “random quantity”, as does Williams. “Gamble” is ubiquitous in the current literature, but I have not seen it anywhere prior to Walley’s 1991 book. Walley does not seem to attribute the term to anyone else. Mik Bickis

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[SIPTA] Fw: IPMU 2018 - Mark your calendars
by Kreinovich June 4, 2017

June 4, 2017

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[SIPTA] Fwd: [ST-NET] 9 Independent Research Group Leaders Tuebingen/Stuttgart (Germany)
by Thomas Augustin June 2, 2017

June 2, 2017

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[SIPTA] [UAI] IUKM 2018--CfP: March 15 - 17, 2018, Ha Noi, Vietnam
by Van-Nam HUYNH June 2, 2017

June 2, 2017

[Apologies for cross-posting. Your help in circulating this call for papers to potentially interested parties will be highly appreciated.] ————————————————————————————————————— IUKM 2018 — CALL FOR PAPERS ————————————————————————————————————— The Sixth International Symposium on INTEGRATED UNCERTAINTY in KNOWLEDGE MODELLING and DECISION MAKING http://www.jaist.ac.jp/IUKM/IUKM2018/ March 15 - 17, 2018, Hanoi, VIETNAM ————————————————————————————————————— -The International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making (IUKM) aims to provide a forum for exchanges of research results, ideas for and experience of application among researchers and practitioners involved with all aspects of uncertainty management and application. Previous symposia have been successfully held in Ishikawa, Japan (IUM 2010 - AISC 68), Hangzhou, China (IUKM 2011 - LNAI 7027), Beijing, China (IUKM 2013 - LNAI 8032), Nha Trang, Vietnam (IUKM 2015 - LNAI 9376), and Da Nang, Vietnam (IUKM 2016 - LNAI 9978). The sixth IUKM (2018) will take place in the capital of Hanoi, Vietnam, during 15-17 March, 2018, and be jointly organized by Hanoi National University of Education (HNUE), Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (JAIST), Belief Functions and Applications Society (BFAS). ————————————————————————————————————— Proposal for special sessions and workshops is encouraged and welcome. ————————————————————————————————————— Relevant topics for the IUKM 2018 Symposium include, but are not limited to, the following: + Theory and Methodology - Uncertainty formalisms: Bayesian probability, Dempster-Shafer theory, imprecise probability, random sets, rough sets, fuzzy sets and interval-based models - Uncertainty modeling and management in big-data environments - Learning and reasoning with uncertainty - Information fusion and knowledge integration in uncertain environments - Decision making under various types of uncertainty - Aggregation operators for decision making - Copulas for dependence modelling - Granular and soft computing - Computational intelligence + Application - Data mining and knowledge discovery - Ontology engineering and Semantic Web - Intelligent data analysis and modelling - Agents and argumentation - Natural language processing - Medical informatics and bioinformatics - Ranking and recommendation systems - Big data and cloud computing - Social network analysis and mining - Sensor fusion - System identification and modelling - Diagnosis and reliability - Decision support systems - Kansei/affective engineering - Service computing - Engineering management - Supply chain management - Environmental management - Economics and econometrics PUBLICATION The authors are invited to submit their full papers by 15 Sept. 2017 (extended deadline). The submissions will be peer-reviewed for originality and scientific quality. As done in previous editions, the proceedings of IUKM 2018 will be published by Springer-Verlag in the Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence series, and be available at the Symposium. Authors are requested to prepare their papers in the Springer LNAI format. Submissions should not exceed 12 pages and must be submitted electronically through the conference’s Easychair submission page (https://easychair.org/conferences/?conf=iukm2018) IMPORTANT DATES Deadline for paper submission: 15 Sept. 2017 Notification of acceptance/rejection: 20 Nov., 2017 Final camera-ready and author registration: 15 Dec., 2017 Early non-author registration: 10 Jan. 2018 Symposium dates: 15-17 March, 2018 —————————————

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[SIPTA] IP question on math.stackexchange
by Abrams May 29, 2017

May 29, 2017

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[SIPTA] Positions (2 PhD + 1 post-doctoral) at Compiègne University, France
by Sébastien Destercke May 10, 2017

May 10, 2017

Dear all, The Heudiasyc Laboratory is looking for motivated candidates on different positions (2 PhD + 1 post-doctoral) with funded scholarships, all concerning the handling of severe uncertainties and all starting around september/october 2017: 1. PhD position on machine learning with structured outputs: "Learning and predicting graphs from limited information". Details in: https://www.hds.utc.fr/~sdesterc/dokuwiki/_media/thesis_graphs.pdf 2. PhD position on inverse problems, with focus on non-linear mechanical models: "Solving the inverse problem under severe uncertainty and with multiple information sources" Details in: https://www.hds.utc.fr/~sdesterc/dokuwiki/_media/thesis_meca.pdf 3. Post-doctoral position on designing reliable systems: "Designing safe systems under severe uncertainties" Details in: https://www.hds.utc.fr/~sdesterc/dokuwiki/_media/postdoc_reliability.pdf If interested, you can contact me by mail. Best regards Sebastien Destercke P.S.: please distribute this announcement to potentially interested and interesting candidates. -- ==================================== Sebastien Destercke, Ph. D. CNRS researcher in computer science. Université de Technologie de Compiegne U.M.R. C.N.R.S. 7253 Heudiasyc Avenue de Landshut F-60205 Compiegne Cedex FRANCE Tel: +33 (0)3 44 23 79 85 Fax: +33 (0)3 44 23 44 77 ====================================

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[SIPTA] Belief scool, Xi'an, China - July 4-9, 2017
by Arnaud Martin May 8, 2017

May 8, 2017

Dear Colleagues, The 4th summer school on belief functions and their applications will be held in Xi'an, China, during July 4-9, 2017. http://belief2017.nwpu.edu.cn/ BFAS board decides to give 12 student grants in the form of free registration. The deadline for the application has been extended to June 1st, 2017. We encourage the Master students and PhD students, who have done the good research work in the area of belief functions and the applications, to apply this grant. For this application, we need: - The student CV - A letter of motivation - An advisor support with the indication whether or not the student can fund his trip without this help Please send the required elements of application to the email of BFAS: bfas(a)bfasociety.org -- ======================================== Pr. Arnaud MARTIN Université de Rennes 1 / IUT de Lannion UMR 6074 IRISA Rue Edouard Branly BP 30219 22302 Lannion cedex, France Phone: +(33)2.96.46.94.60 ========================================

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[SIPTA] A talk on IP (of interest for those in the Milan area)
by hykel hosni May 2, 2017

May 2, 2017

The Centre for the Study of Social Action (CSSA) Seminars will host a talk by Gregory Wheeler (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management) on *Mispriced gambles: What peers learn when they disagree* (Abstract below) All welcome! DATE: Tuesday 9th May at 2:30 PM PLACE: Aula Paci, Department of Philosophy, University of Milan, (via Festa del Perdono 7, 20122, Milano) For more information, please visit our website: http://www.cssa.unimi.it/ ABSTRACT: One criticism to the theory of imprecise probabilities (IP) is that there is no compelling example which mandates choosing an imprecise probability model over a precise probability one, but instead the appeal of the theory rests on intuitions about "Knighten" uncertainty that are inconclusive. This talk answers this criticism with a problem from the peer disagreement literature. The Preservation of Irrelevant Evidence (PIE) Principle maintains that a resolution strategy to peer disagreements should be able to preserve unanimous judgments of evidential irrelevance among the peers. It is well-known that no standard Bayesian resolution strategy satisfies the PIE Principle, and some -- such as Carl Wagner -- have argued so much the worse for PIE. In this paper we respond by giving a loss aversion argument in support of PIE and against Bayes. The upshot is that, given the choice between IP and Bayes, if you want PIE, you must renounce Bayes and choose IP. -- Hykel Hosni Associate Professor of Logic, Department of Philosophy University of Milan http://www.filosofia.unimi.it/~hosni/ Editor of The Reasoner http://thereasoner.org/ Secretary of the Italian Association for Logic and Applications http://www.ailalogica.it

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